A projection that states what it rests on

Build a long-horizon projection — a savings goal, a repayment schedule, or a retirement figure. Show the working. Two things separate a real projection from a spreadsheet that produces a large number: every assumption is written down with the value used, and the answer says whether it is in today's money or tomorrow's. Include the effect of an annual percentage fee. Most projections omit it, and over thirty years it is not a rounding error.

Part of the Personal Finance & Investing course~120 minutesEvidence: a write-upWe mark it against a checklist you can read first

01 · What counts as done

What you have to hand in

The working visible, not just the result.
A rough sense-check of the final figure by an independent estimate.
Every assumption listed with the number used, and the most sensitive one flagged.
Nominal or real declared, applied consistently, and the figure also shown on the other basis.
The lifetime cost of the annual fee, computed rather than asserted.
Conclusions confined to what the arithmetic supports, naming what a reader would still have to decide themselves.

02 · How it will be marked

The checklist, published before you start

We score your work against each line below, and every score has to quote the part of your work it is based on. You read all of it first, so you can argue with any score on the specifics.

The arithmetic is right30% of the grade
Compounding, inflation adjustment and totals are computed correctly and shown.
1. AbsentA method error — simple interest for compound growth, or nominal and real mixed.
2. DevelopingCorrect method, an arithmetic slip that changes the conclusion.
3. Competent— this is the pass markCorrect throughout, with the working visible.
4. StrongCorrect, visible, and sense-checked against a rough estimate.
Every assumption is stated with its value30% of the grade
Return, inflation, contributions, horizon — each named, each with the number used.
1. AbsentA result with no assumptions given.
2. DevelopingSome assumptions stated, at least one load-bearing one missing.
3. Competent— this is the pass markAll of them, each with the value used.
4. StrongAll of them, with the most sensitive one flagged as such.
Nominal or real, said out loud20% of the grade
A long-horizon figure without this word is not interpretable.
1. AbsentNeither stated, and the two are mixed in the working.
2. DevelopingStated once but not applied consistently.
3. Competent— this is the pass markDeclared and applied consistently.
4. StrongDeclared, consistent, and the figure also given on the other basis for comparison.
It reasons without prescribing20% of the grade
The submission draws conclusions about the *numbers* and stops short of telling a reader what to buy. This is a criterion, not a caveat.
1. AbsentRecommends a specific product, provider or allocation.
2. DevelopingImplies a course of action without stating the reasoning behind it.
3. Competent— this is the pass markConclusions confined to what the arithmetic supports.
4. StrongConfined, and explicitly names what a reader would still need to decide for themselves.

03 · What this proves

The skills a pass would prove

Pass, and these skills count as proven, with this piece of work attached as the evidence.

This brief is part of the Personal Finance & Investing course

Starting it starts the course: every skill above, in the order they depend on each other, with this brief at the end as the thing you hand in — marked against the checklist you have just read and nothing else.

About three minutes to set up: what you want to do with Personal Finance & Investing, where you are starting from, and how many hours a week you actually have. The subject we already have from this page.Start the Personal Finance & Investing course

See the whole Personal Finance & Investing course, or every graded brief we run.