Break your own plan on purpose
Take the projection from the previous project, or any plan that currently works on its central assumptions, and find the point where it stops working. The interesting output is not "it fails" — every plan fails under a large enough shock. It is *what gives way first, and in which month*, because that is the only part anyone can prepare for.
What you have to hand in
- A named, quantified, dated adverse scenario, justified from something that has actually happened.
- The first thing that breaks, the month it breaks, and the margin by which it fails.
- A response decided in advance, available at the moment it would be needed, with its own cost acknowledged.
- A statement of what the test could not model, and which omission would matter most.
The checklist, published before you start
- The first failure is located
The submission says what gives way first, and when — not merely that the plan fails eventually.
- Reports only that the plan survives or does not.
- Names a failure without saying when it happens.
- Names the first thing to break and the month it does.
- Names it, the month, and the margin by which it fails.
- The adverse scenario is specific
A named, quantified shock with a start date and a duration — not "things get worse".
- A vague downturn with no numbers.
- Quantified but with no timing.
- Quantified, timed, and plausible.
- Plausible, and justified from something that has actually happened.
- There is a response, decided in advance
What the plan's owner would do at the point of failure, chosen now rather than in the moment.
- No response considered.
- A response that is a hope rather than an action.
- A concrete action, available at the time it would be needed.
- Concrete, with its own cost acknowledged.
- It says what it could not model
Every stress test omits something. The submission names what it left out.
- Presented as complete.
- A general disclaimer.
- Specific omissions named.
- Named, with a view on which omission would matter most.
The skills a pass would prove
- Stress testing a planBreak your own plan under a stated adverse scenario and say what breaks first
- Risk is not just volatilityDistinguish volatility from risk of loss for a stated horizon and goal
- The buffer, and where it sits in the orderSize a cash buffer from your own fixed outgoings and justify the number of months
- Stating assumptionsList every assumption a projection depends on, with the value used for each
This brief is part of the Personal Finance & Investing course
Starting it starts the course: every skill above, in the order they depend on each other, with this brief at the end as the thing you hand in — marked against the checklist you have just read and nothing else.
Start the Personal Finance & Investing course