Take apart a number someone is about to act on

Find a data-backed claim that is currently being used to justify a decision — from your own organisation, a public report, or a news story with the underlying figures published. Write the critique you would actually send. The test of this piece is not whether you can find something wrong; almost any claim has something wrong. It is whether you can find the *one* thing that matters and propose something that would settle it.

Part of the Statistics & Data Literacy course~90 minutesEvidence: a write-upWe mark it against a checklist you can read first

01 · What counts as done

What you have to hand in

The claim quoted exactly, with its source.
The population the figure describes, and the population the claim is about.
One assumption named as load-bearing, with the reason it carries the weight.
Weaker objections explicitly set aside rather than listed.
A specific, obtainable test, and what result would change your own mind.
Written so the person who made the claim would read it to the end.

02 · How it will be marked

The checklist, published before you start

We score your work against each line below, and every score has to quote the part of your work it is based on. You read all of it first, so you can argue with any score on the specifics.

The load-bearing assumption is found30% of the grade
The critique identifies the one assumption the claim actually rests on, rather than listing every possible objection.
1. AbsentNo assumption identified, or the critique attacks the conclusion directly.
2. DevelopingSeveral objections listed with no view on which matters most.
3. Competent— this is the pass markOne assumption named as load-bearing, with a reason.
4. StrongNamed, reasoned, and the weaker objections explicitly set aside.
Something that would settle it30% of the grade
A concrete piece of evidence or a specific analysis that would confirm or kill the claim.
1. AbsentNo test proposed, or "we need more data".
2. DevelopingA direction is suggested but not something anyone could act on.
3. Competent— this is the pass markA specific, obtainable test with a stated expected outcome.
4. StrongSpecific, obtainable, and says what result would change the author's own mind.
The population is named25% of the grade
The submission says precisely which group the figure describes, and which group the claim is about.
1. AbsentTreats the sample as the population without noticing.
2. DevelopingMentions the sample but not the gap to the population of interest.
3. Competent— this is the pass markNames both groups and the gap between them.
4. StrongNames both, and says which direction the gap pushes the result.
The critique is proportionate15% of the grade
The response matches the stakes and stays usable by the person who made the claim.
1. AbsentDismissive, or so hedged it makes no point.
2. DevelopingCorrect but adversarial, or buried in caveats.
3. Competent— this is the pass markDirect, specific, and collaborative.
4. StrongReads as help rather than correction, without softening the point.

03 · What this proves

The skills a pass would prove

Pass, and these skills count as proven, with this piece of work attached as the evidence.

This brief is part of the Statistics & Data Literacy course

Starting it starts the course: every skill above, in the order they depend on each other, with this brief at the end as the thing you hand in — marked against the checklist you have just read and nothing else.

About three minutes to set up: what you want to do with Statistics & Data Literacy, where you are starting from, and how many hours a week you actually have. The subject we already have from this page.Start the Statistics & Data Literacy course

See the whole Statistics & Data Literacy course, or every graded brief we run.